Hello i determination flower. I agree to Exponential View to help us understand how our societies and political economies will change under the influence of accelerating technologies.
In today’s number:
⚖️ Turning Point
Not every climate tipping point is a nightmare. Clean energy and electric vehicles are reaching tipping points for global adoptionTom Randall says: 87 countries are experiencing tipping points in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid-scale storage. Heat pumps, which will be necessary for domestic heating, have already replaced a fifth of boilers in Europe.
One example of a massive grid-scale battery: CATL is building a 1.4 GWh battery in Nevada Solar energy storage (Enough to power more than 50,000 American homes for a day.)
Why is this importantShifting the narrative around a clean transition is critical to driving greater adoption and greater investment. Here’s the story I’m telling: A clean transformation is happening fast, and it’s getting cheaper and cheaper. There may be an occasional bump in the road with fluctuating supply and rising commodity prices, but the overall trend is inevitable.
The Chinese liquor trade is now worth more than Tencent in the role of President Xi’s extreme barbarism on the technology industry. Big companies, which have led commercial and tech innovation, and the software arenas are under deep scrutiny as the party moves to limit its power. As Francis Fukuyama wrote, weaken shi The institutions, collective decision-making and decentralization that made modern China powerful and wealthy (er) are already starting to hurt: “This concentration of power in one man… led to bad decisions.” (BTW, this is a complicated picture: China also took the lead in Regulation of autonomous vehicles allowed and strengthen it Domestic intellectual property protection frameworks.)
Why is this important: The Great Leap Forward did not work. Nor did seven decades of Gosplan’s best efforts. Modern economies are too complex for the fickle interpretation of personal dictates. Rather, they demand more creative and risky decisions, better handling of uncertainty, and quicker reactions from the free-thinking agents of society (whether they are businesses, financiers, or citizens). New China may kill golden geese.
🎤 Open AI
London-based AI Stability, The company behind Stable Diffusion, raised an initial $100 million round at a $1 billion valuation. Stability manages a training set of 4000 Nvidia A100 GPU, making it one of the largest supercomputers in the world. The company follows an open source strategy, like Red Hat Linux, rather than having heavily guarded models like those of OpenAI or Google. (Take a look at this Post by the company’s chief information officer.) Open source can go some way to expanding access to these technologies. stability models Even works on laptops, as I mentioned last month. But there are significant risks associated with such models (discriminatory and biased output, for example) and it is not clear to me that open source has good governance models for delivering ethics by design. stability licenses You have some rails, as far as the end user of the form is responsible for its legal and ethical use. Traditional corporate institutions, such as sales force or Microsoftfound ways to incorporate ethical frameworks into their systems.
Why is this important: Turn on your tap. Turn on your lights. Check the electrocardiogram on your wrist. The democratization of technology is usually a good thing. However, there are well-understood risks with large-scale AI models, and I’d be curious to see how stability finds new ways to address them.
In the weekly commentary, I look at the prospects for protocols replacing platforms in social media.
In every Sunday edition, we Track key metrics She tells us a little bit about the future of the common climate. our member, Marshall Kirkpatrickit takes a long time to process a presentation of the current state of our climate in this segment each week.
One thing to know about our future climate this week: Things get worse less quickly; Let’s keep flipping this ship! according to New report from the International Energy Agency Published this week, global emissions of carbon dioxide will rise less than 1% this year. Growth is estimated at 300 million tons to 33.8 billion, down significantly from the growth of nearly 2,000 million tons of carbon dioxide added in 2021. The IEA said the credit is largely due to record deployments of renewables and electric vehicles. The International Energy Agency’s coal estimates for the year may also be inaccurately high, Says Ember Coal Analyst Dave Jones. According to IEA Roadmap to net zero by 2050 However, the 33.8 billion tons of annual carbon dioxide emissions not only need to stop growing, they need to be reduced to 30.2 billion by 2025 and then to 21.1 billion by 2030. Azim wrote about “net zero negative costor how the transition would go beyond paying for itself, if we could make that transition. Let every step in the right direction be acknowledged then. As Adrian Marie Brown advises in her book change contract, “Change comes from cumulative shifts. Think about how groups synthesize change…or not. They reflect for groups what they are practicing—both in and out of alignment with their values.” Let’s go on!
In other climate news:
Big wind plans: Cumulative targets for new offshore wind generating capacity planned to be built in the United States this year have been revised up 58% to 77.4 gigawatts, According to a new report From Offshore wind business network. That’s a lot: the current installed capacity of solar power in the US as of this spring has been 121 gigawatts And the largest offshore wind project under construction in the world, the UK’s Dogger Bank, in 3.6 gigawatts. This means that the US now has more than 20 times the offshore winds planned from Dogger Bank.
sun circle: Australian researchers have published what they say is a new method for Recycle all solar panel mass except 2%-3%widespread, sustainable and affordable. In February, German researchers said they had devised a method The cells in the solar panels are made from 100% recycled materials..
Billions from South Africa: South Africa agreed to $8.5 billion investment plan in energy conversion Moving away from coal, despite persistent concerns about awarding the program in exchange for more indebtedness and poor follow-up from rich countries that have promised to support programs like these. Separately, South Africa this week announced plans to build a $4.6 billion green ammonia plantwhich will combine solar energy and desalinated water from the salt plant to produce fuel to decarbonize the shipping industry.
Tesla Approaching 60 million thousands of cumulative experience Using the “Full Autonomous Driving” mode.
Lenovo is the largest PC manufacturer, shipped 16.9 million units last quarter. Of the top five, only Apple saw an increase in market share (by a whopping 40%).
after covid, Venture capitals in California have invested in startups that are widely distributed. The researchers observed an increase in geographical spread of up to 51%.
Big tech companies Thousands of workers have been laid off this year.
Ridiculously high drug prices in the United States It does not come from research and development costs.
🖥 Zero confidence is Loss of credibility as a model for cybersecurity.
our brains You may use quantitative arithmetic.
🐣 Narration Challenge: The defining trend of our time is regionalization, not globalization..
👻 Ali Abdel tweeted a list of productivity hacks and got more than 1 million impressions. catch: Entirely written by AI.
🙀 Do not read this article on high reactance. (Now why would I say that? Better read the article.)
I was in Chicago last week to give a lecture exponential age. It was an amazing event, probably the best single theater I’ve ever spoken in and with two thousand attendees. (you can see Some pictures here.)
The trip gave me a chance to catch up on some reading, listening and watching. Three recommendations:
By the way, if you want me to speak at your event (or show your board or executive team) about exponential age, send me a line and I can connect you to my agents.
I’m talking in Wired Impact 2022 In London on November 2nd. Other speakers are Uğur Şahin from BioNTech, Gaia Vince and Kim Stanley Robinson. The first 20 EV members who sign up will get free tickets – EV members will receive more information on this separately tomorrow. For everyone else, we have a file 25% off.
PPS Our Chantal Smith is hosting an EV Meet in Berlin on Sunday, November 6, at 4.30pm. Register here.
What you’re going to do – feedback from EV readers
Farida Abdul Razzaq is looking for candidates for Bloomberg NEF Pioneer Contest.
Bucky McCormick is Featuring Jocelynn Pearl and Elliot Hershberg on DeSci In his “not boring” newsletter.
Posted by Gianni Giacomelli Two videos featuring super brains.
Quinn Emmett posted a profile Important and unimportant podcast episode with John Simelhak on how to electrify homes.
Eduardo Plastino and his team at Cognizant have published the flyers Essay on what business executives lack about the metaverse.
To share your projects and updates, Fill in your details here. Due to space limitations, we prioritize updates from paying members and startups you’ve invested in. (You can become the former by signing up, if you haven’t already, and the latter by getting an introduction to me via a trusted contact.)